Author Topic: Otapanje leda na polovima  (Read 53419 times)

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Pizzobatto

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #450 on: 20-03-2017, 00:40:22 »
Piše da nauka nije dovoljno naučna da procjenjuje bilo šta. Zbog neoliberalizma. A piše i da SSSR-u klimatologija nije bila na vrhu prioriteta.

Jel'? Gde to piše, ovo prvo? Daj citat.
Piše da je naučni razvoj zaustavljen i da nam je posljednja riječ nauke internet stvoren prije 50+ godina. I da je nauka zaribala u osrednjim tezama, otkrićima i pronalascima.

I poredi se sa naučnim radom u SSSR.

Uostalom, oko čega se raspravljamo, od kada je kompjuterski model postao superioran metod naučnog istraživanja?

U neka pametnija vremena ne bi pogledali te radove krajičkom oka.
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit

mac

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #451 on: 20-03-2017, 01:02:44 »
Okej, ali ti reče zbog neoliberalizma, a to ne piše u članku. Piše zbog birokratije i patentnih zakona.

Pizzobatto

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #452 on: 20-03-2017, 01:22:53 »
Šta smo nas dvojica čitali...  Šta je uopšte poenta članka nego da kapitalistički sistem guši razvoj nauke, za razliku od sovjetskog?

Čemu uopšte poređenja sa Sovjetima u trenutku neoliberalne deregulacije u SAD?

Što mora da piše riječ "neoliberalizam" da bi to bilo to? Ja čak ne znam ni da li se spominje ili ne, bitna je suština a ne riječ. Može da piše radulizacija, isto se hvata.
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit

mac

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #453 on: 20-03-2017, 03:00:18 »
Pa evo, nek pročita još neko (kome bi i ja verovao), pa nek da svoj sud. Poređenje sa Sovjetima sam video u svetlu toga da su se tada Sovjeti i Amerikanci takmičili, i pokušavali da nadmaše jedan drugog ne samo tehnički, nego i kulturalno. Sovjeti su maštali, trošili resurse na svašta nešto, i na kraju propali. Ostala je Rusija, koja sada ima grdniji kapitalizam od same Amerike, ali s večitim vođom na čelu. Sovjeti ne predstavljaju dobar naučni model, jer su ekonomski propali. Za ikakvu nauku trebaju pare, a pare stižu iz ekonomije.

Možemo da maštamo kombinaciji sovjetske nauke i američke ekonomije, ali to su samo maštanja. Pare imaju zadnju reč, dakle biće onako kako para kaže. Američki model ne treba menjati sovjetskim, nego ga treba unaprediti. Više hrabrosti i vizije, manje birokratije i patenata. Imam ja ideju za novi sistem trijaže ideja, ali kasno je sad. A da ga i iznesem verovatno bi se neargumentovano popišao na isto, so..

Uzgred, članak se pojavio u tenutku kad smo zaista na korak do bar dve tehnološke revolucije (roboti i genetika), a možda i više (AI, energetika, transport...). Čekaj i videćeš.

Meho Krljic

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #454 on: 20-03-2017, 06:26:53 »
Re: Freoni: Guglao sam, naravno, jer nisam mogao da se setim je li fluorohloro, kako sam napisao isprva ili hlorofloro. A Freon je postalo ime za gomilu različitih gasova pa je to uključivalo i halone, ne tehnički ispravno ali prihvaćeno - nisam to ja izmislio.

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #455 on: 20-03-2017, 10:16:38 »
Gugl i ti skoro kao ja. To je dokaz da internet ne povećava inteligenciju. Povećava iluziju. Jednostavno - ne razumeš. Priznaj, nisi ni u srednjoj školi voleo hemiju. Puko si na valencama? Svejedno.


Odoh ja do Bate i Mac. Zanimljiviji su.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

Meho Krljic

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #456 on: 20-03-2017, 10:23:27 »
Ne, hemija mi je bila najomiljeniji predmet, čak sam u srednjoj završio upravo hemijski smer. Ali kad trideset godina ne pominješ neke stvari, ne sećaš ih se najbolje...

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #457 on: 20-03-2017, 10:36:54 »

Što mora da piše riječ "neoliberalizam" da bi to bilo to?


Stvarno, što bi moralo? Ma, zato što ako ne piše u linku, onda se ne važi.


Osnovna teza neoliberalizma je da ne treba tražiti ništa izvan njega, jer je on sve. Ne može da opstane ako nije sam. Svedoci smo da je tako. Eno, ruši se, samo što nije.
I nemojmo trabunjati o dostignućima. Ajfoni, cvajfoni, drajfoni... Napredak sa ciljem dominacije na polju informatike, da širi religiju neoliberalizma. Ekonomija iber ales! Najveću moć ima ko naštampa najviše para! I simbioza između vrsta je biznis.
I nemojmo trabunjati o robotici i AI. Alati i šlus. Objekti, a ne subjekti. Otkud na spisku transport? Bre, ne znaju ni do svemirskih stanica da doture zalihe. Ako ne plate Rusima.
Samo me je stra' da nismo previše otupeli oklevajući da im se dođe glave.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #458 on: 20-03-2017, 10:38:08 »
Ne, hemija mi je bila najomiljeniji predmet, čak sam u srednjoj završio upravo hemijski smer. Ali kad trideset godina ne pominješ neke stvari, ne sećaš ih se najbolje...
Mehice, može tvoj post biti poslednji na ovu temu, ali će i dalje isto mirisati.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

Meho Krljic

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #459 on: 20-03-2017, 10:53:58 »
Na runolist, bez sumnje  :lol:

Pizzobatto

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #460 on: 20-03-2017, 13:34:26 »
Mac, stvarno pogrešno gledaš... Kakve veze koja je ekonomija propala, zbog čega je to bitno zs kvalitet nauke?

Tačno, za nauku treba imati pare, ali to nije dovoljno. Jer kapitalizam ulaže pare u specifične naučne discipline, dok druge ne napreduju.

Itd, kasnije...
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit

Pizzobatto

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #461 on: 20-03-2017, 16:40:41 »
Sovjeti su imali pet puta slabiju ekonomiju a nisu imali slabiju nauku. Znači nije da pare tek tako odlučuju jer ovi pare i neće da daju, iako ih imaju pet puta više.

Drugo, članak pokazuje da se isto desilo u nauci što i u društvu. Sve dok je postojala prijetnja Sovjeta i proletarijata, naučna trka se finansirala a radila je i država blagostanja. Čim se sletjelo na Mjesec simbolično je poražen komunizam i počinje razgradnja welfare state-a i naučnih instituta već sa Niksonom.

Danas već neki misle da je Radul zdrav razum. Vidjeli smo njegov obrazovni sistem u kojem su najbolji van budžeta, jer im roditelji pripadaju srednjoj klasi.

Pa eto ti razloga propasti nauke,  right there. Ne vodi se obrazovni sistem obrazovnim kriterijumima no učinimo ih jednakim u znanju. Eto osrednjosti nauke u najavi.

A kapitalizam naravno prvenstveno razvija militaristički dio nauke. Sve što je proizvedeno prvo ima vojnu upotrebljivost, od turbo injectiona u automobilima, preko interneta, kompjutera i mobilne telefonije, do dezodoransa koji upija znoj ili jakne koja hladi ili grije. Prvo vojska, poslije dobije civilno stanovništvo.

Lijekovi, vakcine... Našli su oni i za klimu neku korist, samo da prokljuvimo koju. Sem već navedene da je u pitanju pokušaj zaustavljanja razvoja.
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #462 on: 20-03-2017, 16:46:44 »
Jel' možeš dalje bez mene? Snalaziš se.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

Meho Krljic

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #463 on: 21-03-2017, 06:31:35 »
Kad smo već kod metana:
 Siberia permafrost: Over 7,000 methane-filled bubbles 'ready to explode' discovered in Arctic
 
Quote

There are over 7,000 gas-filled bubbles in remote parts of Siberia that are set to explode, scientists have discovered. Following extensive field expeditions and satellite surveys, researchers in Russia have identified thousands of bulging bumps in the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas – far more than they had expected.
Alexey Titovsky, director of Yamal department for science and innovation, told the Siberian Times that understanding the bubbles is of paramount important to assessing the risk they pose.
 
In July last year, scientists released footage of the ground on Bely Island wobbling underfoot. When they punctured them, methane and carbon dioxide was released. It is thought an abnormally warm summer had caused the permafrost to thaw, leading to the release of methane that had been locked up in the ground. At present, it is thought this process is behind the emergence of the numerous craters that have appeared over recent years – including the 'gateway to the underworld' crater near Batagaiin.Titovsky said the 7,000 bulging bumps identified could also collapse into craters: "At first such a bump is a bubble, or 'bulgunyakh' in the local Yakut language. With time the bubble explodes, releasing gas. This is how gigantic funnels form.
"We need to know which bumps are dangerous and which are not. Scientists are working on detecting and structuring signs of potential threat, like the maximum height of a bump and pressure that the earth can withstand."
The team plans to continue throughout the year to chart and map all of the underground bubbles in Yamal.
 
 
Thawing permafrost as a result of global warming is expected to lead to more methane release in the future, a spokesman from the Ural branch of Russian Academy of Science said. "An abnormally warm summer in 2016 on the Yamal peninsula must have added to the process," they added.
On Bely Island, scientists found methane was 1,000 times above normal, while CO2 was around 25 times higher. "As we took off a layer of grass and soil, a fountain of gas erupted," one of the scientists working at the site explained.
The release of methane from the thawing permafrost is of huge concern to climate scientists. Max Holmes, the deputy director and senior scientist at the Woods Hole Research Centre, told IBTimes UK it could lead to the collapse of human infrastructures, like roads and towns, as well as creating a feedback cycle that results in even more warming.
 
 
"That is a self-reinforcing cycle with greenhouse gasses released as permafrost thaws, which causes warming," he said. "This results in more permafrost thaw and causes more warming and on and on. That is something we worry a lot about. Once this cycle gets going it is hard to stop.
"How do we stop it? We control what we can control. Permafrost thaw is driven fundamentally by global warming, which is amplified in the Arctic. How do you control global warming? You control the emissions that are directly under your control – fossil fuel combustion and deforestation."
 

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #464 on: 21-03-2017, 08:25:38 »
A, ko je zatvorio metan? Da ne ometaju Ruske Južne, Severne i Istočne Tokove, Rusi bi sve već prodali Evropi i Japanu. Ako su za naftu odgovorni dinosauri i kitovi, a za ugalj drveta, onda su za metan krive trave. Pravda i sloboda za metan!
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

Ugly MF

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #465 on: 21-03-2017, 10:23:36 »
Uvešće zakone da plaćamo porez na prdež!
Uvoznici pasulja, nahebal'ste!!!

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #466 on: 21-03-2017, 10:44:45 »
I KUPUSI SU OPASNI!
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

Ugly MF

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #467 on: 21-03-2017, 11:31:35 »
To onaj kis'o?
Leleeee, da znaš!
Ako ne uvežbamo samo 'tihavce' da ispuštamo, gotovi smo kao vrsta!!!

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #468 on: 21-03-2017, 11:42:11 »
To onaj kis'o?



Ne znaš ni šta su kupusi?
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

Ugly MF

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #469 on: 21-03-2017, 11:47:55 »
Pa znam, al' sam izdvojio najopasniji, 'ebaga sad de, odma će sitničariš....
tuuuu breeeeee,,,,kaki si to čo'ek, breeee...

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #470 on: 21-03-2017, 11:50:30 »
Izvini. Dobar je i kiseo kupus.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

Ugly MF

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #471 on: 21-03-2017, 11:54:58 »
Pa saaaarma brateee, sarma!
Ima da 'edemo sarme pa makar se ceo svet ugušio u našim prdežima!
Ua globalno zagrevanje, ua prenaseljena planeta, ua globus, ua politička korektnost!
Živeo, pasulj i prdež!


Ugly MF

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #473 on: 24-03-2017, 10:14:35 »
Ko još veruje u tu prevaru o globalnom zagrevanju?!?
To nam valjaju isti oni kojima treba populacija od 500000 ljudi zbog 'prenaseljenosti'!?!
Dajte breeee.....Meho, uozbilji se pa ti, razuman si čovek!

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #474 on: 24-03-2017, 10:39:07 »
Naravno. Ne može da bude globalno, jer Zemlja nije globus, zar ne?
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

Meho Krljic

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #475 on: 24-03-2017, 10:51:40 »
Upravo jer je ljudima čim temperatura u Julu padne ispod 15 stepeni prva stvar na usnama "A jel' vidiš kako lažu? GLOBALNO ZAGREVANJE A JA SE SMRZO!" termin je odavno penzionisan i umesto njega se koristi termin "klimatske promene" koji je i svakako bolji jer ono što se dešava kompleksan fenomen i ne opisuje se dovoljno precizno ako se fokusira samo na zagrevanje...

Ugly MF

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #476 on: 24-03-2017, 11:26:48 »
Meho, to nam podmeću isti oni koji bi da imaju populaciju od 500.000 ljudi na celoj planeti...
Čista zavera, kakvo zagrevanje, gomila gluposti, oće zabrane nama Srbima da pečemo rakiju kad nam ćefne i da ne pravimo sušeničke i roštilje ....ma gamad belosvetska!

Meho Krljic

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #477 on: 24-03-2017, 11:37:08 »
Pa ja i kažem, nije "zagrevanje" nego "promene"  :lol:

A, hahah, ne verujem da ih boli što Srbi peku rakiju, verovatno je mnogo više to što Kinezi ostvaruju vrtoglav privredni rast baziran na energiji koja se dobija velikim delom iz fosilnih goriva. Naravno, Kinezi imaju fabrike jer ih je zapad tamo izvezao u određenoj meri tako da...

Mica Milovanovic

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #478 on: 24-03-2017, 11:49:34 »
Quote
Naravno. Ne može da bude globalno, jer Zemlja nije globus, zar ne?


А како онда може да буде отапања леда на половима?
Tу нешто није у реду.
Ја само знам да код pole dancing-а долази до приличног загревања у публици...
Mica

Pizzobatto

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #479 on: 24-03-2017, 12:42:23 »
Zar nije i Milanković prognozirao topljenje leda, odnosno pomjeranje polova?


Elem, a ja čito da je climate change fraza koju su podvalili Republikanci jer je eufemizam za global warming, koji bi građani spremnije prihvatili.
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #480 on: 24-03-2017, 12:50:00 »
Sa klimom je uvek klimavo. I Indijanci seku šumu za zimu, jer su na vestima čuli da će biti oštra.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

Meho Krljic

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #481 on: 24-03-2017, 13:00:01 »


Elem, a ja čito da je climate change fraza koju su podvalili Republikanci jer je eufemizam za global warming, koji bi građani spremnije prihvatili.

Uglavnom je obrnuto: republikanci su skakali na global warming svaki put kada se zimi temperatura spustila ispod proseka pa je u političkoj terminologiji onda počeo da se koristi drugi izraz. Inače, sajt sceptical science koji sam na ovom topiku linkovao nekoliko puta ima detaljnu diskusiju o tome da su oba termina legitimna jer opisuju zapravo različite pojmove (warming je trend, climate change njegova posledica...), pa se u nauci oba koriste:

https://skepticalscience.com/climate-change-global-warming.htm

Oću da kažem, nauka uglavnom pazi šta radi koliko može, ali njene političke aplikacije su ono gde nastaje kontroverza...

Meho Krljic

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #482 on: 26-03-2017, 07:56:17 »
Sea ice extent sinks to record lows at both poles
Quote

Arctic sea ice appears to have reached on March 7 a record low wintertime maximum extent, according to scientists at NASA and the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado. And on the opposite side of the planet, on March 3 sea ice around Antarctica hit its lowest extent ever recorded by satellites at the end of summer in the Southern Hemisphere, a surprising turn of events after decades of moderate sea ice expansion.
  On Feb. 13, the combined Arctic and Antarctic sea ice numbers were at their lowest point since satellites began to continuously measure sea ice in 1979. Total polar sea ice covered 6.26 million square miles (16.21 million square kilometers), which is 790,000 square miles (2 million square kilometers) less than the average global minimum extent for 1981-2010 -- the equivalent of having lost a chunk of sea ice larger than Mexico.
The ice floating on top of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas shrinks in a seasonal cycle from mid-March until mid-September. As the Arctic temperatures drop in the autumn and winter, the ice cover grows again until it reaches its yearly maximum extent, typically in March. The ring of sea ice around the Antarctic continent behaves in a similar manner, with the calendar flipped: it usually reaches its maximum in September and its minimum in February.
This winter, a combination of warmer-than-average temperatures, winds unfavorable to ice expansion, and a series of storms halted sea ice growth in the Arctic. This year's maximum extent, reached on March 7 at 5.57 million square miles (14.42 million square kilometers), is 37,000 square miles (97,00 square kilometers) below the previous record low, which occurred in 2015, and 471,000 square miles (1.22 million square kilometers) smaller than the average maximum extent for 1981-2010.
"We started from a low September minimum extent," said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. "There was a lot of open ocean water and we saw periods of very slow ice growth in late October and into November, because the water had a lot of accumulated heat that had to be dissipated before ice could grow. The ice formation got a late start and everything lagged behind -- it was hard for the sea ice cover to catch up."
The Arctic's sea ice maximum extent has dropped by an average of 2.8 percent per decade since 1979, the year satellites started measuring sea ice. The summertime minimum extent losses are nearly five times larger: 13.5 percent per decade. Besides shrinking in extent, the sea ice cap is also thinning and becoming more vulnerable to the action of ocean waters, winds and warmer temperatures.
This year's record low sea ice maximum extent might not necessarily lead to a new record low summertime minimum extent, since weather has a great impact on the melt season's outcome, Meier said. "But it's guaranteed to be below normal."
In Antarctica, this year's record low annual sea ice minimum of 815,000 square miles (2.11 million square kilometers) was 71,000 square miles (184,000 square kilometers) below the previous lowest minimum extent in the satellite record, which occurred in 1997.
Antarctic sea ice saw an early maximum extent in 2016, followed by a very rapid loss of ice starting in early September. Since November, daily Antarctic sea ice extent has continuously been at its lowest levels in the satellite record. The ice loss slowed down in February.
This year's record low happened just two years after several monthly record high sea ice extents in Antarctica and decades of moderate sea ice growth.
"There's a lot of year-to-year variability in both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, but overall, until last year, the trends in the Antarctic for every single month were toward more sea ice," said Claire Parkinson, a senior sea ice researcher at Goddard. "Last year was stunningly different, with prominent sea ice decreases in the Antarctic. To think that now the Antarctic sea ice extent is actually reaching a record minimum, that's definitely of interest."
Meier said it is too early to tell if this year marks a shift in the behavior of Antarctic sea ice.
"It is tempting to say that the record low we are seeing this year is global warming finally catching up with Antarctica," Meier said. "However, this might just be an extreme case of pushing the envelope of year-to-year variability. We'll need to have several more years of data to be able to say there has been a significant change in the trend."
 

 
A evo i malo za nas laike:
  A layman's guide to the science of global warming

Meho Krljic

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #483 on: 07-04-2017, 07:42:52 »
Yes, 50 million years ago the earth was hotter. Here's why climate change is still a major problem

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If we do nothing to reduce our carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, by the end of this century the Earth will be as hot as it was 50 million years ago in the early Eocene, according to a new study out today in the journal Nature Communications. This period—roughly 15 million years after dinosaurs went extinct and 49.8 million years before modern humans appeared on the scene—was 16F to 25F warmer than the modern norm.
Climate change doubters often point to these earlier temperature shifts as a way of rebutting the scientific evidence that climate change is caused by human activity. And yes, less than a million years ago parts of the Midwest were covered in glaciers, while 56 million years ago the Arctic was warm enough that crocodiles roamed Greenland. All of this is true.
But greenhouses gases like CO2 are so named for their ability to magnify the sun’s energy, and 50 million years ago the sun wasn’t as hot— our star is getting hotter with age. During the Eocene, it took more atmospheric CO2 to influence temperatures than it does today. In fact, if we don’t change our behavior, 2100 will be as hot as the Eocene with much less atmospheric CO2 than was present at the time. A hotter sun means we get more bang for our CO2 buck.
“Climate change denialists often mention that CO2 was high in the past, that it was warm in the past, so this means there's nothing to worry about,” said lead study author Gavin Foster, a researcher in isotope geochemistry and paleoceanography at the United Kingdom’s University of Southampton. “It's certainly true, that the CO2 was high in the past and that it was warm in the past. But because the sun was dimmer, the climate wasn't being forced as much [as it will be] in the future if we carry on as we are.”


If we keep going and exhaust our supplies of fossil fuels like gas and coal, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere could rise to 2000 ppm by 2250— levels not seen since 200 million years ago. And because the sun was much dimmer then, that concentration of CO2 would translate into temperatures not seen in the last 420 million years—not since long before the time of the dinosaurs.
Roughly 400 million years ago, CO2 levels actually declined because the warming sun increased the rate of biochemical reactions on the Earth. “The main [CO2] controller is silicate weathering, which is the term for breaking rock down into soil,” said Foster.  “That’s the natural way in which CO2 is removed from the atmosphere. And that process is temperature and runoff dependent. It depends on how wet it is, and how warm it is.”
But innate silicate weathering didn’t reduce atmospheric CO2 to modern levels on its own. The increased rate of soil formation fueled the rise of land plants over the last 400 million years, which helped speed up the silicate weathering and reduce the levels of atmospheric CO2.
And yes, these processes will speed up in the presence of more CO2, but they're incredibly slow—it’s like speeding up a sloth. Even if you double its speed, the sloth will still get run over. RIP sloth, RIP us.
“CO2 gets locked away out of the atmosphere when it's formed as part of the skeleton of an organism in the ocean, and that organism then sinks to the seabed when its dead,” said Foster. “It's the weathering, but it’s the weathering that then transports the items that were in the rock to the seawater. The organisms take it up in the sea, then they sink into the seabed. The process of one molecule of CO2 from the atmosphere getting locked away in the seabed takes a long time.”
If we stopped emitting CO2 today, traces of our emissions would still be in the atmosphere in a million years’ time.
“We are completely over swamping the natural processes,” said Foster.

Pizzobatto

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #484 on: 07-04-2017, 12:41:07 »
Eto, opet ona macova slika protivrječi sa svojim temperaturama
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit

mac

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #485 on: 07-04-2017, 12:49:29 »
Brzina je problem, braćo. Brzina, a ne zvona i praporci.

Pizzobatto

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #486 on: 07-04-2017, 13:14:24 »
Pa ne govorim o brzini, ovaj priča da će se do 2100. godine temp dići za 25 farenhajta, a onaj tvoj simulakrum tvrdi bar duplo manje.
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #487 on: 23-04-2017, 17:06:31 »
Ja bih o nauci, mada je teško odvojiti od politike. Bilo ponešto na različitim mestima, ali neka bude ovde ako ću o dekretima koji orjentišu ili ukidaju nauku.


Ne čudim se što o nauci više pričaju oni koji nemaju pojma nego oni koji se njome bave. Proveo sam radni vek u nečemu što se zvalo Institut za tehničko-medicinsku zaštitu, pa sam stalno imao priliku da lekari govore o onima koji se bave šrafcigerima i mučkanjem, a inženjeri se kleli da mogu da potamane više laboratorijskih parcova od lekara. I kod mene su oni koji koji su se bavili protivparnom zaštitom znali više o protivaerosolnoj od onih koji su se bavili protivaerosolnom zaštitom i obratno. Ljudska sudbina je uvek bila da se više zna ono šta se ne zna.


Niko se ne osvrnu da je Trump dekretom ukinuo globalno zagrevanje, pa odmah dobismo najhladniji april u "istoriji" naše meteorologije. Ko bi rekao da je tako dalekosežan! Juče i prekjuče opsednuti šetanjem u SAD marširaju protiv dekreta kojim Trump "ukida" nauku. Jest' on doneo uredbu da se ulaganje u svakojaka istraživanja malo pretoče u korist radnika koji od toga nemaju nikakvu fajdu, ali dok to stigne do zaparloženih mozgova taman je dovoljno da se smisle novi protesti.


Kad bismo bili u stanju da malo podrobnije razmislimo a nismo, dosetili bismo se da je i na ZS raspravljano o visokoj nepouzdanosti lansiranih naučnih istraživanja i rezultata. Kao i neoliberalizam u celini i nauka je usrljala u marketing po svaku cenu. Takva nauka nije nikome potrebna. Time su stvoreni rejtinzi u nauci i indeks citiranja, kao da je to pobogu tenis ili golf.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

Ugly MF

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #488 on: 23-04-2017, 19:11:36 »
...Tramp je rekao da je zemlja ravna!
Kaće da ukine globus?

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #489 on: 23-04-2017, 19:26:08 »
Ajde, teraj dalje. Ovo je ozbiljan tekst.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

mac

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #490 on: 23-04-2017, 19:45:19 »
Za praćenje klime nije bitna trenutna temperatura vazduha u nekom mesecu, nego trend promene temperature u okeanima. Kladim se da svetski okeani nisu imali najhladniji april u "istoriji" srpske meteorologije.

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #491 on: 23-04-2017, 19:47:25 »
Nemoj da se kladiš. Izgubićeš.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

mac

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #492 on: 23-04-2017, 20:06:05 »
Mogu da se kladim, neću izgubiti. Evo trenda prosečne temperature svih vodenih površina. Trend pokazuje rast. Verovatnoća da je baš u ovom mesecu aprilu prosečna temperatura svih vodenih površina bila na nivou iz tamo neke 1950. je ništavna:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature#/media/File:Global_Sea_Surface_Temperature.jpg

Pizzobatto

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #493 on: 23-04-2017, 20:22:50 »
Nači prvo je padala od 1880. do 1910. Zašto je tada padala? Pa je rasla do 1945. pa opet pala pa počela da raste? Simulakrum 8-)
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit

mac

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #494 on: 23-04-2017, 20:39:24 »
You keep saying that word...

Taj pad je nastao jer su Britanci počeli masovno da mere temperaturu na kraju rata, a oni to rade drugačije nego Amerikanci.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthcomment/charlesclover/3343062/Global-sea-temperature-drop-was-artificial.html

Taj jedan pad je "simulakrum". Ostali padovi su slabije izraženi i objašnjavaju se vulkanskom aktivnošću (Krakatau 1883, Santa Maria 1902, Novarupta 1912). Erupcija vulkana Krakatau je bila baš velika, a druge dve erupcije su održavala nivo sulfata u atmosferi sve do 1920 i tako privremeno hladile Zemlju.

Ukupan globalni rast nije simulakrum.

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #495 on: 23-04-2017, 20:44:08 »
Bato, obrati pažnju da je baseline za period 1971-2000. Što nije za 130 godina? Mac, zar nije dosta sa tim manipulacijama? Znaš li koliko je Farenhajt? Pričaš o frtalj oC, a oscilacija 1,5oC. Sam napišeš da je Krakatau bio gori od sveg CO2 emitovanog. Jedan Jelouston i mirni smo.
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

mac

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #496 on: 23-04-2017, 21:22:36 »
Jeste gori ali daje privremeno efekat. 10-15 godina maksimalno. Kad pepeo i sulfurdioksid padnu nazad na Zemlju (teži su od vazduha) temperatura nastavlja tamo gde je stala, jer ugljendikosid nije nikuda otišao (nije dovoljno teži od vazduha). Ako je tvoje rešenje za spas svog biodiverziteta da aktiviramo vulkane svakih deset godina, onda nam se loše piše.

scallop

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #497 on: 23-04-2017, 21:33:15 »
Sad ćeš i hemiju da me učiš? Postoji li na ZS ekspert koji ne zna ono šta ne zna?
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. - Mark Twain.

Pizzobatto

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #498 on: 23-04-2017, 21:35:51 »
Pa ne, poslije 1945. je valjda zbog rata? Mislim, i sad tvrde ako Kim ili Tramp njukiraju nastupa nuklearna zima.
Tad je bila Hirošima, jelte...

Al stani sad nešto, hajd i da stvarno samo vulkani i bombe spuštaju temperaturu, problem je što je industrija 19. vijeka maestralno manja od one iz sredine 20. vijeka, kamoli u novom milenijimu.

A po ovom simulakrumu 1880, 1930. i 1980. ista temperatura.
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit

Pizzobatto

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Re: Otapanje leda na polovima
« Reply #499 on: 23-04-2017, 21:41:03 »
Šta se mijenja ako average nije tih 40 godina? Ne kontam

A druga stvar, po čemu je relevantna temp površine mora?
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit