Poll
Question:
True or false?
Option 1: Cuda se desavaju svaki dan. Tacka.
votes: 10
Option 2: Tsk. Cuda ne postoje.
votes: 6
Miracle on Probability Street
by Michael Shermer (SciAm)
"...
In their delightful book Debunked! (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2004), CERN physicist Georges Charpak and University of Nice physicist Henri Broch show how the application of probability theory to such events is enlightening. In the case of death premonitions, suppose that you know of 10 people a year who die and that you think about each of those people once a year. One year contains 105,120 five-minute intervals during which you might think about each of the 10 people, a probability of one out of 10,512--certainly an improbable event. Yet there are 295 million Americans. Assume, for the sake of our calculation, that they think like you. That makes 1/10,512 X 295,000,000 = 28,063 people a year, or 77 people a day for whom this improbable premonition becomes probable. With the well-known cognitive phenomenon of confirmation bias firmly in force (where we notice the hits and ignore the misses in support of our favorite beliefs), if just a couple of these people recount their miraculous tales in a public forum (next on Oprah!), the paranormal seems vindicated. In fact, they are merely demonstrating the laws of probability writ large.
...
Another form of this principle was suggested by physicist Freeman Dyson of the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, N.J. In a review of Debunked! (New York Review of Books, March 25), he invoked "Littlewood's Law of Miracles" (John Littlewood was a University of Cambridge mathematician): "In the course of any normal person's life, miracles happen at a rate of roughly one per month." Dyson explains that "during the time that we are awake and actively engaged in living our lives, roughly for eight hours each day, we see and hear things happening at a rate of about one per second. So the total number of events that happen to us is about thirty thousand per day, or about a million per month. With few exceptions, these events are not miracles because they are insignificant. The chance of a miracle is about one per million events. Therefore we should expect about one miracle to happen, on the average, every month."
:mrgreen:
Tja, zavisi kako definišeš "čudo".
1. Kao nešto što je malo verovatno da se dogodi ili
2. Kao nešto što ne možeš racionalno da objasniš?
Ako je 1., onda je svet sačinjen od čuda.
Ako je 2., onda ti treba ili više znanja ili specijalan "filter" za opažanje čuda. :wink:
Moram da priznam da nisam pročitao tekst (učiniću to kasnije), ali verujem da se čuda dešavaju svaki dan. Uostalom, život je čudo.
Quote from: "Lurd"Uostalom, život je čudo.
jel' se tako beše zove novi Kusturičin film? :)
Quote from: "iNCUBUs"Quote from: "Lurd"Uostalom, život je čudo.
jel' se tako beše zove novi Kusturičin film? :)
Fak, baš znaš da spustiš! :wink:
tsk. naucno dokazano.
Nisam glasao. (Ne)objasnjivost necega se krije iza citave price. Neke stvari koje se danas uzimaju zdravo za gotovo ranije su smatrane cudom i to je bilo sasvim legitimno tada, a tako je i sada za neke druge stvari koje se trenutno ne mogu objasniti...
E sad, sve ovo ima i svoju drugu stranu. Licno, mislim da je stvar i u pristupu. Nekada nam je lepse da verujemo u cuda, cak i kada nam se nudi ocigledno objasnjenje, i to je sasvim ok, zivot je tako zanimljiviji.
Uostalom, nikada nece moci sve na ovom svetu da bude objasnjeno...
Quote from: "Milosh"
Uostalom, nikada nece moci sve na ovom svetu da bude objasnjeno...
I to je sjajno inače bi život bio smrtno dosadan.
M, da... Sta ja znam, meni se retko desava da nesto sto ne mogu da objasnim proglasim cudom. U tim slucajevima obicno resim da prihvatim izazov i krenem da se igram :) Dakle, pod 2 - nije cudo. Pod 1 - tekst je trebalo da bude uvod u tu definiciju cuda, malo verovatan dogadjaj. Kad bolje razmislis, uopste retko je koji dogadjaj zaista malo verovatan. Sve zavisi od skale na kojoj posmatras.
... ili od jezika. Evo, vec nedelju dana se cudom cudim kako neko moze da napravi software za user-e toliko user NEprijateljskim, ma cudo jedno. I jos prime platu za to... Bah. Idem ja.
Dodatak/edit: pst, vas dvojica gore, u cemu je zaje@ancija na racun filma?